Los Posibles Efectos en las Finanzas Públicas de Implementar la Recomendación de Aumentar la Edad de Pensión de la Mujer Indicada por la OCDE en la Reforma Pensional del 2019

Abstract

The possible economic effects on the Colombian budget of implementing the recommendation to increase the pension age of women, made by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, in the reform of the pension system were analyzed. 100% of men and women were taken, the data of the women were isolated, these were purified by removing them: mortality rate, in which regime they were pensioned, how they agreed to pension. The contribution percentage to each regime was revised by age, evidencing the lack of financing of the Average Premium Regime (RPM) for competition between regimes. The number of women was identified by salary range and the CPI was projected, the SMMLV minimum salary was projected by the CPI plus an actuarial component that assumes the variations by annual productivity, the National General Budget (PGN) was projected based on the variation historical percentage of progressive growth. The new transition regime dates were defined and the dates of the period in which it would apply, determining the age range of those affected, identifying the number of people who stopped entering the system annually and its value in billions of pesos for the public treasury. The trend of female pension expenditure compared to the PGN was compared, evidencing the savings in the period after the transition, which depends on the pension age.