Análisis de los cambios del recaudo fiscal del impuesto al valor agregado iva para Colombia a partir de la reforma tributaria ley 1819 de 2016

Abstract

The Value Added Tax (VAT) has been the mainstay of the Colombian tax system for 57 years: it is the simplest tax to collect, but at the same time the one that has the greatest impact on the income of consumers, especially the most vulnerable. This is why each tax reform, which occurs on average every 24 months, is accompanied by a controversy over the possible increase of this tax. As of the Tax Reform, Law 1819 of 2016, the VAT presented a significant increase of 3 percentage points, from 16% to 19% which generated an increase in tax collection of 22.26% in 2017 compared to 2016, mainly due to the increase in the general rate and collection management of the Dian portfolio and tax control of the Dian. Based on the above, we responded to the incidence of the changes in the Structural Tax Reform Law 1819 of 2016, on the fiscal collection of the value added tax Iva in Colombia, through a mixed approach. Through the univariate model ARIMA, an analysis was made of the behavior of the variable VAT collection in an average economy on a quarterly basis from the year 2000 until the second quarter of 2018, where it was concluded that in the scenario of no structural tax reform of law 1819 of 2016, VAT collection would not have been significantly affected, the average variation in collection would have been similar with an estimated deviation of 2%. Keywords: Tax, Value Added Tax -VAT-, Tax Reform, Consumption, General Rate, Collection.